Tariff impacts
Anza’s Q1 report noted that tariffs would likely significantly impact energy storage pricing.
The company’s latest report reflects the true impact tariffs have had.
In the Q1 report, pricing decreased marginally from August 2024 to 31 January 2025, and suppliers adjusted quotes and deal structures to prepare for tariffs.
Since that time, a total tariff rate of 145% under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for China, along with Section 301, caused all manufacturers tracked by Anza to halt quoting in early April.
Most of those same manufacturers returned to the market with reduced validity periods. The May reprieve lowers the IEEPA China rate to 30% for 90 days starting May 14 (Section 301 is still applicable), but suppliers are still safeguarding their margins using contract contingency clauses.
Container production in Asia and the US surged significantly due to a tighter vessel supply due to tariffs.
On 20 May, the International Trade Commission (ITC) announced a preliminary countervailing duty decision concerning Chinese active anode material. The initial duty is set at 6.55%, which might have little effect on the direct-current (DC) block level, but is still not fully known.
Speaking with Energy-Storage.news, Senior Director of Strategic Sourcing at Anza Renewables, Ravi Manghani, notes:
“Suppliers took most of April to navigate their way through the on-again-off-again tariff environment, but by mid-May, the prices finally settled down.”
Manghani continues, “On the FOB basis (excluding tariffs and freight), we actually saw prices decline, which was expected as input costs have come down, and suppliers stepped up to absorb part of the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff. The tax bill now seems to have taken the front seat, as buyers evaluate their options on multidimensional risk factors.”
Q2 system comparison
Anza’s report analyses two standard project sizes, a 40MW distributed-generation project and a 200MW utility-scale project, both configured for four hours of duration.
Both projects were analysed for weekly and monthly trends, observing significant and minor shifts in the industry.
The cost for a four-hour, 40MW alternating-current (AC) BESS increased by 49% from early to late April, before dropping by 21% following the tariff pause on 12 May.
DC systems experienced even more volatility, rising 84% from early to late April before dropping 33% in May.
Anza notes that smaller, distribution-connected systems, like the 40MW system, faced a greater impact from tariffs compared to bulk-connected systems.
Since January, prices for distribution-connected systems have surged by 68% for AC and DC, while AC bulk-connected systems saw a 56% rise and DC bulk-connected systems experienced a 69% increase.
Q3 and beyond
Anza says that prices are expected to remain volatile until policy clarity returns.
Additionally, Anza says the 90-day tariff pause that began on 14 May is anticipated to raise shipping costs in Q3 2025, as various industries aim to import goods into the US to benefit from the reduced tariffs.
Presently, a significant concern for the US energy storage sector is the US tax reconciliation bill, which, if enacted, might eliminate tax credits and bring other critical issues forward.
Another key concern of the bill is the 60-day construction commencement requirement, mandating projects seeking tax credits to start construction within 60 days of the bill’s passage. Furthermore, these projects must be operational by the end of 2028.
Manghani says of the bill, “First and foremost, if the 60-day commence construction requirement stays, we could see a rush to lock in supply for 2026-2028 deliveries. This could likely see prices rise by the end of this year and the first half of 2026.”
The Senate appears to be softening this approach, however, during its part of the law-making process. See our coverage of its draft bill, from today, here.
Manghani continued: “All this assuming the tariff situation doesn’t get any worse. Irrespective, we expect non-China products to hold a premium due to lower tariff concerns. The domestic options are also at the mercy of Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) language in the bill.”
The FEOC restrictions would sever key supply chains for BESS technology before the US can establish a robust domestic supply chain.
With so many unknowns, it is difficult to say right now what policy clarity will ultimately look like. Manghani adds, “The market needs clarity on two fronts – tax bill and tariffs. While the tax bill reconciliation is on track for a late July or early August resolution, tariffs will continue to keep everyone on their toes.”
He continues, “In addition to the Liberation Day and Fentanyl IEEPA tariffs, the active anode materials AD/CVD case determinations are expected by fall, and the Department of Commerce has also started its investigation on processed critical minerals under Section 232.”
